Introduction to infectious disease modelling
| Numbering Code | P-PUB01 8H161 LB90 | Year/Term | 2022 ・ Intensive, First semester | |
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| Number of Credits | 2 | Course Type | Lecture | |
| Target Year | Professional degree students | Target Student | ||
| Language | Japanese and English | Day/Period | Intensive | |
| Instructor name | NISHIURA HIROSHI (Graduate School of Medicine Professor) | |||
| Outline and Purpose of the Course | This module welcomes students to dive into the introductory science of infectious disease modelling. We cover the fundamental idea of renewal process. Infectious disease data are very special in two critical points, (i) infection event is seldom directly observable and (ii) the risk of infection involves dependence structure. We study how these problems are handled using non-linear models and integral equations. | |||
| Course Goals |
a. Understand how the transmission potential is measured in epidemiology; b. Explain threshold phenomena in controlling infectious diseases; c. Describe technical issues associated with delay structure; d. Understand how vaccine efficacy at an individual level can be measured; e. Estimate and implement epidemic modelling in students' own laptop computer. |
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| Schedule and Contents |
Each session takes 90 minutes in total. The module itself will be a part of the 10-day short course of infectious disease modelling, and participants are encouraged to take other lectures too. 1. Introduction to epidemic modelling 2. Measuring transmissibility 3. Herd immunity and SIR model 4. Capturing heterogeneity 5. Vaccine and vaccination 6. Stability analysis 7. Real time modelling 8. Case fatality risk, followed by exam |
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| Evaluation Methods and Policy |
Attendance to a total of two-thirds of classes will be required to be eligible for final examination. Evaluation is conducted by coursework (i.e. comprehension during the class) (30%) and examination (70%). |
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| Course Requirements |
Attend "infectious disease epidemiology" (MPH core) in advance 必ず「感染症疫学」に先にご出席ください |
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| Study outside of Class (preparation and review) |
No specific preparation would be required. There will be math refresher sessions on Day 2 and Day 3 of the entire short course. Students who do not possess substantial mathematical expertise are encouraged to attend those lessons. |
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| Textbooks | Textbooks/References | （2021年度前半に、西浦博編「感染症数理モデル入門（仮題）」を金芳堂から出版予定．講義内容をカバーしています） | ||
